The COVID surge was on the decline. Now progress has stalled out : Shots

At the national level, the long-running decline in COVID-19 cases could cover up some of the troubled areas in the upper part of the country. It’s hitting Mountain West states like Colorado, Utah and Wyoming particularly hard, but even parts of the Northeast have seen a worrying increase in cases and hospital admissions.

Helen H. Richardson / Media News GR / Denver Post via Getty Images


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Helen H. Richardson / Media News GR / Denver Post via Getty Images


At the national level, the long-running decline in COVID-19 cases could cover up some of the troubled areas in the upper part of the country. It’s hitting Mountain West states like Colorado, Utah and Wyoming particularly hard, but even parts of the Northeast have seen a worrying increase in cases and hospital admissions.

Helen H. Richardson / Media News GR / Denver Post via Getty Images

The United States has decided to pull out of a restless and delta-ridden delta that has gripped the summer for the first time.

Over the weeks, declining cases and hospital admissions have offered hope ahead of the holiday season when Americans travel and spend more time indoors, but recently progress has stalled, more than twenty As cases increase or rise in the states.

In fact, the country’s average daily cases have been about 72,000 infections in the past two weeks, mainly due to the outbreak in the northern half of the country. About 40,000 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in early September, just below the top half.

Mountain West – where vaccination coverage is low – is the worst, especially in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. Much of the Southwest and Midwest is also trying to control the speed. Even parts of the highly vaccinated Northeast are experiencing an increase in the fall.

Modeling suggests that cases will likely be higher during the holiday season, but not as fast as last year. Dr. David Rubin, Who leads the COVID-19 modeling group at Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia.

“The next few weeks are going to tell us about the holiday season,” he says. “I’ve been cautiously optimistic, especially in areas with high vaccines right now.”

Now that young children can start getting vaccinated, having a family together can make a big difference in controlling matters. It gives Rubin “the greatest hope that our worst days are behind us.”

Some experts are less serious about where the epidemic is heading.

“This corona virus is more than just human wood to light wildfires,” he says. Michael Oster HolmDirector of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Researchers there estimate that about 70 million Americans are infected with the virus, due to a lack of immunity and a lack of vaccinations.

“It won’t look like January because we have too many exceptions.” Dr. Julie Parsnit Professor of Infectious Diseases and Population Health at Stanford University. “But we’re going to see the waves – the top of the waves is going down, but we’re still going to see them because the population is getting more and more immune.”

An epidemic swept through the Rockies.

As matters have declined in the South, many parts of the West have experienced the worst growth to date.

“I’ve been with the hospital for 12 years, it’s busier than last fall,” he says. Dr. Andy DunnHead of primary care at the state’s largest hospital, Wyoming Medical Center. “We’re seeing more COVID patients and we’re seeing sicker COVID patients.”

with Only 44% of its population is fully vaccinated., Wyoming is below almost every other state. This fact, coupled with the arrival of the Delta variant, was preparing for Dunn’s hospital months ago: “We knew it would be killed, so it was under a lot of pressure.”

In Utah, health officials were on the verge of activating statewide ration care schemes last winter, but now the situation looks almost as bad, says Dr. Angela DunnExecutive Director of the Salt Lake County Health Department.

“We are definitely in a crisis when it comes to getting people to take care of their needs,” she says. “When a patient needs an ICU bed, it takes us two to three hours because they are all full. It usually takes 10 minutes.”

To their dismay, most people seem unaware of the problems in their local hospitals. And Dunn’s hopes that it will force more people to be vaccinated – Utah’s vaccination rate is about 53 percent – have not materialized. “We’re just seeing a very low, slow pace,” she says.

Meanwhile, Colorado Governor Jared Pauls The order has been issueds which allows hospitals to remove some patients if necessary and specify when hospitals may be operational. Maintenance plan state crisis standardsDue to overcrowding in the ICU.

“We have all these cowardly positive patients, but we also have a lot of other patients that we didn’t see during our last big increase,” he says. Dr. Michelle Barron, Medical Director of Infection Control and Prevention at UCHealth, Colorado’s largest healthcare system.

Backlogs of other patients, often those who have delayed care, and staff shortages have put their hospitals in a precarious position. Colorado has vaccinated more than 60% of its population against COVID-19, putting it ahead of many other neighboring states. But Baron says he still leaves a lot of people who are potentially infected or have complications because their immune systems have been compromised.

“The majority of the patients we are seeing are those who have not yet been vaccinated,” she says.

Lessons learned from the addition of Vermont

Even some states that set the standard for successful vaccination campaigns have experienced a major wave of infections this fall.

Vermont is a serious example.

The state has vaccinated more than 70% of its population against COVID-19, including the majority of its seniors. Nevertheless, it set new records for daily corona virus cases in the past month, although the per capita rate is not at its peak in many states.

“We had at that time more or less patients than we had in the last two years,” he says. Dr. Rick HaldibrantChief of Hospital Medicine at Rutland Regional Medical Center in Rutland, Vermont. “But we have never seen such scenarios in other parts of the country where the hospital system has just been overwhelmed by COVID.”

In fact, COVID-19 is a small fraction of the total volume of patients in Vermont’s hospitals, who are also struggling with extremely busy emergency rooms and delayed care outcomes. However, the increased stress of the corona virus has forced the hospital to “work beyond capacity for weeks.” Dr. Tim Lahi, Physician of an Infectious Disease at UVM Medical Center.

“This is a clear call for other states to reach Vermont: just because you have a high adult vaccination percentage doesn’t mean the game is over,” he says.

While cases are now declining in the state, Lahe says the increase there has also revealed that a “vaccine-only” strategy – which provides with mask-like interventions – could be dangerous. When a relatively small portion of the population is deprived of vaccines.

But Vermont’s experience suggests that well-vaccinated states can prevent the devastation seen in other states, such as Idaho and Wyoming, where half, if not more, of the population has not been vaccinated, hospitalized. Were lying, and the death rate was very high.

“Statistics are not currently available on the protection of a wide range of community vaccinations against acute disease,” said Rubin of the CHOP.

He says some major northeastern cities have also seen an increase in transmissions this fall, but “they’re still holding on well” and that could mean they’re “in the holiday season.” Are somewhat flexible. ”

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